November 2025 Manufacturing Insights
U.S. manufacturing continued to face headwinds in November 2025, with the sector contracting for the ninth consecutive month according to ISM data, though the competing S&P Global PMI painted a more optimistic picture of sustained expansion. The divergence between the two major surveys underscores the complex and uneven nature of the current manufacturing environment. Tariff pressures remained a dominant theme, driving input costs higher while creating uncertainty around demand and reshoring decisions.
Despite the challenging macro environment, companies continued to invest in domestic manufacturing capacity at a remarkable pace. November saw major announcements totaling tens of billions of dollars across pharmaceuticals, renewable energy, semiconductors, aerospace, and consumer products—a strong signal that corporate America remains committed to building out U.S. production infrastructure for the long term.
A Month in Data
The two major purchasing manager surveys offered contrasting views of November’s manufacturing activity, highlighting the difficulty in assessing the sector’s true health.
ISM Manufacturing Report
The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2 percent in November, down 0.5 percentage points from October’s 48.7 reading. This marked the ninth consecutive month of contraction following a brief two-month expansion earlier in the year. The decline was led by pullbacks in supplier deliveries (49.3 vs. 54.2), new orders (47.4 vs. 49.4), and employment (44.0 vs. 46.0).
The New Orders Index contracted for a third straight month, with the November figure of 47.4 percent representing a 2-percentage point drop from October. According to ISM Chair Susan Spence, for every positive comment about new orders, there were 1.2 comments expressing concern about near-term demand, driven primarily by tariff costs and uncertainty. Employment contracted for the 10th consecutive month, with 67 percent of panelists indicating that managing headcount remains the norm rather than hiring.
On a positive note, production rebounded into expansion territory at 51.4 percent, up from 48.2 percent in October. Price pressures also intensified slightly, with the Prices Index rising to 58.5 percent from 58.0 percent, as tariffs continued to push input costs higher.
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
In contrast, the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI registered 52.2 in November, down modestly from 52.5 in October but still indicating expansion for the fourth consecutive month. The headline figure was supported by a solid rise in output—the strongest since August—and continued employment growth at a three-month high.
However, S&P Global’s Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson cautioned that the surface-level numbers mask underlying concerns. Demand growth slowed sharply, with new export orders falling at the steepest pace since July due to tariff-related trade deterioration. Most notably, manufacturers recorded an unprecedented rise in warehouse stocks for a second consecutive month—the steepest inventory buildup in the survey’s 18-and-a-half-year history—as production outpaced weaker-than-expected sales.
What the Data Means
The conflicting signals from ISM and S&P Global reflect the complex currents running through U.S. manufacturing. The ISM survey, which shows consistent contraction, suggests that a majority of manufacturers—particularly in sectors sensitive to capital spending and trade—continue to struggle with weak demand and elevated uncertainty. Meanwhile, S&P Global’s expansion reading indicates that production levels and employment are holding up, even if demand growth is slowing.
The record inventory buildup identified by S&P Global is particularly concerning. When factories produce more than they can sell, warehouses fill with unsold goods—typically a precursor to production cuts in coming months. This dynamic suggests that even the modest growth recorded in November may prove difficult to sustain into 2026.
New Factory and Manufacturing Announcements
November 2025 saw a wave of major manufacturing investment announcements, spanning pharmaceuticals, renewable energy, semiconductors, aerospace, and industrial equipment. These commitments represent tens of billions in capital spending and thousands of new jobs across the country.
AstraZeneca’s $2 Billion Maryland Campus
British pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca announced a $2 billion investment to build a new manufacturing campus in Maryland, including a 60-acre site in Frederick and an expansion of its Gaithersburg biologics facility. The project is expected to create 2,600 jobs and will strengthen the company’s U.S. supply chain for rare disease treatments and biologics. CEO Pascal Soriot called it “a landmark moment for Maryland and American patients,” signaling deepening commitment to domestic production.
First Solar’s $1.1 Billion AI-Enabled Facility
First Solar inaugurated a 2.4-million-square-foot manufacturing facility in New Iberia Parish, Louisiana. The $1.1 billion plant features artificial intelligence-driven production systems and will produce Series 7 photovoltaic modules while creating more than 800 jobs. CEO Mark Widmar described the project as “a commitment to American energy dominance, affordable electricity, growth and prosperity.”
Boeing’s $1 Billion+ 787 Expansion
Aerospace manufacturer Boeing is investing more than $1 billion to expand its 787 Dreamliner production site in North Charleston, South Carolina. The expansion will add new final assembly lines and create 1,000 new jobs to meet strong demand for the fuel-efficient widebody jet. Boeing Commercial Airplanes president Stephanie Pope emphasized the investment ensures Boeing is “ready to meet our customer’s needs in the years and decades ahead.”
Rockwell Automation’s Wisconsin Greenfield Plant
Rockwell Automation announced plans for a new manufacturing site exceeding 1 million square feet in southeastern Wisconsin as part of a $2 billion capital program across its U.S. facilities. CEO Blake Moret highlighted the opportunity to “create the future of industrial operations, with highly orchestrated production” through designing a new facility from the ground up.
Toyota’s $912 Million Hybrid Investment
Toyota announced a $912 million investment to boost hybrid vehicle production across five U.S. states—West Virginia, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Missouri—adding 252 jobs. Senior Vice President Kevin Voelkel reinforced Toyota’s philosophy of building where it sells, emphasizing continued commitment to the American manufacturing footprint.
Novartis Manufacturing Hub in North Carolina
Novartis announced plans to establish an end-to-end manufacturing hub in North Carolina’s Research Triangle region. The expansion includes 700,000 square feet of new and upgraded facilities in Durham and Morrisville, creating 700 jobs and increasing capacity for gene therapy manufacturing. CEO Vas Narasimhan called it “a commitment to American innovation and to the patients we serve.”
Future Outlook
The November data presents a manufacturing sector at a crossroads. On one hand, the persistent contraction in ISM’s survey and the record inventory buildup flagged by S&P Global suggest demand weakness that could intensify heading into 2026. Tariff uncertainty continues to weigh on business confidence and complicates sourcing decisions. The employment picture remains challenging, with manufacturers focused on managing headcount rather than expanding payrolls.
On the other hand, the wave of new factory announcements in November demonstrates that corporate investment in U.S. manufacturing infrastructure remains robust. From pharma giants onshoring biologics production to solar manufacturers building AI-enabled facilities, companies are betting on the long-term potential of American manufacturing. These multi-billion-dollar investments typically take 2-3 years to become operational, meaning their economic impact will be felt in the latter half of the decade.
The coming months will prove pivotal in determining whether November’s conflicting signals resolve into a more coherent picture—and whether 2026 brings the manufacturing recovery that has proven elusive throughout much of 2025.
